Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China.

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.

IOT-Based Medical Informatics Farming System with Predictive Data Analytics Using Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms.

In the farming industry, the Internet of Things (IoT) is crucial for boosting utility. Innovative agriculture practices and medical informatics have the potential to increase crop yield while using the same amount of input. Individuals can benefit from the Internet of Things in various ways. The intelligent farms require the creation of an IoT-based infrastructure based on sensors, actuators, embedded systems, and a network connection. The agriculture sector will gain new advantages from machine learning and IoT data analytics in terms of improving crop output quantity and quality to fulfill rising food demand. This paper described an intelligent medical informatics farming system with predictive data analytics on sensing parameters, utilizing a supervised machine learning approach in an intelligent agricultural system. The four essential components of the proposed approach are the cloud layer, fog layer, edge layer, and sensor layer. The primary goal is to enhance production and provide organic farming by adjusting farming conditions as per plant needs that are considered in experimentation. The use of machine learning on acquired sensor data from a prototype embedded model is investigated for regulating the actuators in the system. Then, an analytics and decision-making system was built at the fog layer, employing two supervised machine learning approaches including classification and regression algorithms using a support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) for effective computation over the cloud layer. The experimental results are evaluated and analyzed in MATLAB software, and it is found that the classification accuracy using SVM is much better as compared to ANN and other state of art methods.

Occurrence of Fungicides in Vineyard and the Surrounding Environment.

Seventeen fungicides were determined in different matrices from vineyard areas, including vine leaves, soils, grapes and water, using gas chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). For leaf analysis, ultrasound-assisted extraction (UAE) was performed evaluating different solvents. UAE was compared with other extraction techniques such as vortex extraction (VE) and matrix solid-phase dispersion (MSPD). The performance of the UAE method was demonstrated on vine leaf samples and on other types of samples such as tea leaves, underlining its general suitability for leaf crops. As regards other matrices, soils were analyzed by UAE and microwave-assisted extraction (MAE), grapes by UAE and waters by SPE using cork as the sorbent. The proposed method was applied to 17 grape leaf samples in which 14 of the target fungicides were detected at concentrations up to 1000 µg g-1. Furthermore, the diffusion and transport of fungicides was demonstrated not only in crops but also in environmental matrices.

Pollution index of waterfowl farm assessment and prediction based on temporal convoluted network.

Environmental quality is a major factor that directly impacts waterfowl productivity. Accurate prediction of pollution index (PI) is the key to improving environmental management and pollution control. This study applied a new neural network model called temporal convolutional network and a denoising algorithm called wavelet transform (WT) for predicting future 12-, 24-, and 48-hour PI values at a waterfowl farm in Shanwei, China. The temporal convoluted network (TCN) model performance was compared with that of recurrent architectures with the same capacity, long-short time memory neural network (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU). Denoised environmental data, including ammonia, temperature, relative humidity, carbon dioxide (CO2), and total suspended particles (TSP), were used to construct the forecasting model. The simulation results showed that the TCN model in general produced a more precise PI prediction and provided the highest prediction accuracy for all phases (MAE = 0.0842, 0.0859, and 0.1115; RMSE = 0.0154, 0.0167, and 0.0273; R2 = 0.9789, 0.9791, and 0.9635). The PI assessment prediction model based on TCN exhibited the best prediction accuracy and general performance compared with other parallel forecasting models and is a suitable and useful tool for predicting PI in waterfowl farms.

Epidemics and the future of coffee production.

In this perspective, we draw on recent scientific research on the coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic that severely impacted several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, to explore how the socioeconomic impacts from COVID-19 could lead to the reemergence of another rust epidemic. We describe how past CLR outbreaks have been linked to reduced crop care and investment in coffee farms, as evidenced in the years following the 2008 global financial crisis. We discuss relationships between CLR incidence, farmer-scale agricultural practices, and economic signals transferred through global and local effects. We contextualize how current COVID-19 impacts on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home orders, and international border policies could affect farmer investments in coffee plants and in turn create conditions favorable for future shocks. We conclude by arguing that COVID-19's socioeconomic disruptions are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis. While this argument illustrates the vulnerabilities that come from a globalized coffee system, it also highlights the necessity of ensuring the well-being of all. By increasing investments in coffee institutions and paying smallholders more, we can create a fairer and healthier system that is more resilient to future social-ecological shocks.

Integration of fish culture and poultry rearing in transplanted rice for nutritional security in smallholder farms.

Agriculture provides livelihood for 65% of Nepal's population contributing for 27% of its GDP. Smallholder farms constitute 60% of farming segment. Distress farming, with inadequate minimum support price, subsidies and inadequate revenue generation force 29% of the general population to be malnourished. Farming system designs with integration of animal components would augment animal protein intake of these resource-poor populations, livelihood enhancement and sustainability of production system. On-farm field experiments in 75 participating farmers fields of Nepal with integration of fish culture and poultry rearing in transplanted rice showed appreciable (a significant) increase in nutritional status and livelihoods of participating farmers.

New York State dairy farmers' perceptions of antibiotic use and resistance: A qualitative interview study.

Antibiotic resistance is a global problem affecting both human and animal health. Ensuring the strategic and effective use of antibiotics is paramount to combatting the emergence and spread of resistance. This study explored New York State (NYS) dairy farmers' perceptions regarding antibiotic use in dairy farming and antibiotic resistance. Dairy farmers' perceptions were assessed through semi-structured, in-person interviews. Twenty interviews with farm owners and/or managers of 15 conventional and five USDA certified organic dairy farms with 40 to 2,300 lactating cows were conducted. Thematic analysis was used to assess, compare and contrast transcripts for farmers' characterization of their beliefs, values, and concerns. Conventional dairy farmers had a low level of concern about the possible impacts of on-farm antibiotic resistance on human health and believed their antibiotic use was already judicious. Generally, they believed their cattle's health would suffer if antibiotic use were further curtailed. Conventional farmers expressed frustration over the possibility of more stringent governmental, milk cooperative, buyer, or marketer requirements for antibiotic use and associated animal welfare in the future. They attributed expanding regulations in part to misinformed consumer preferences, that farmers felt were influenced by the marketing of organic dairy products. Organic dairy farmers were generally more concerned about issues related to antibiotic resistance than conventional farmers. Both conventional and organic farmers placed emphasis on disease prevention through herd health management rather than treatment. In conclusion, the conventional NYS dairy farmers in this study were skeptical of the need for and benefits of reduced antibiotic use on their dairy farms. Interventions for farmers, delivered by a trusted source such as a veterinarian, that provide training about proper antibiotic use practices and information of possible financial benefits of refining antibiotic use may hold promise.

Impact of land use land cover changes on ecosystem service value - A case study of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao in South China.

The rapid increase in anthropogenic activities, socioeconomic development, and land use land cover (LULC) changes since the opening of economic reforms (1978), have changed the ecosystem service value (ESV) in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao (GKHM) region located in South China. This leads to the requirement of a significant tailored analysis of ecosystem services regarding incisive and relevant planning to ensure sustainability at regional level. This study focuses on the use of Landsat satellite imagery to quantify the precise impact of LULC changes on the ecosystem services in GHKM over the past three decades (1986-2017). The most renowned established unit value transfer method has been employed to calculate the ESV. The results show that the total ecosystem service value in GHKM has decreased from 680.23 billion CNY in 1986 to 668.45 billion CNY in 2017, mainly due to the decrease in farmland and fishponds. This overall decrease concealed the more dynamic and complex nature of the individual ESV. The most significant decrease took place in the values of water supply (-22.20 billion CNY, -14.72%), waste treatment (-20.77 billion CNY, -14.63%), and food production (-7.96 billion CNY, -33.18%). On the other hand, the value of fertile soil formation and retention (6.28 billion CNY, +7.26%) and recreation and culture (5.09 billion CNY, +12.91%) increased. Furthermore, total ESV and ESV per capita decreased significantly with the continuous increase in total gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita. A substantial negative correlation exists between farmland ESV and GDP indicating human encroachment into a natural and semi natural ecosystems. The results suggest that in the rapidly urbanizing region, the protection of farmland and to control the intrusion of urban areas has marked an important societal demand and a challenge to the local government. This required a pressing need for smart LULC planning and to improve policies and regulation to guarantee ecosystem service sustainability for acceptable life quality in the study area and other fast expanding urban areas in China.

Innovating within or outside dominant food systems? Different challenges for contrasting crop diversification strategies in Europe.

Innovations supporting a shift towards more sustainable food systems can be developed within the dominant food system regime or in alternative niches. No study has compared the challenges faced in each context. This paper, based on an analysis of 25 cases of European innovations that support crop diversification, explores the extent to which barriers to crop diversification can be related to the proximity of innovation settings with dominant food systems. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of interviews and participatory brainstorming, we highlight 46 different barriers to crop diversification across the cases, at different levels: production; downstream operations from farm to retailing, marketing and consumers; and contracts and coordination between actors. To characterise the diversity of innovation strategies at food system level, we introduce the concept of "food system innovation settings" combining: (i) the type of innovative practice promoted at farm level; (ii) the type of value chain supporting that innovation; and (iii) the type of agriculture involved (organic or conventional). Through a multiple correspondence analysis, we show different patterns of barriers to crop diversification according to three ideal-types of food system innovation settings: (i) "Changing from within", where longer rotations are fostered on conventional farms involved in commodity supply chains; (ii) "Building outside", where crop diversification integrates intercropping on organic farms involved in local supply chains; and (iii) "Playing horizontal", where actors promote alternative crop diversification strategies-either strictly speaking horizontal at spatial level (e.g. strip cropping) or socially horizontal (arrangement between farmers)-without directly challenging the vertical organisation of dominant value chains. We recommend designing targeted research and policy actions according to the food systems they seek to develop. We then discuss further development of our approach to analyse barriers faced in intermediate and hybrid food system configurations.

Understanding the effect of producers' attitudes, perceived norms, and perceived behavioral control on intentions to use antimicrobials prudently on New York dairy farms.

Understanding farmers' behavior, motivations, and perceptions toward antimicrobial use can influence how veterinarians translate research into practice and guide effective ways of implementing protocols. A multidisciplinary team investigated behavioral tendencies of New York dairy farmers toward antimicrobial use by administering a survey modeled with the reasoned action approach. This approach is a framework from social psychology containing the constructs attitude, perceived norms, and perceived behavioral control, and is used in combination with structural equation modeling to determine what drives intentions. Multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) models were then used to determine the effects of beliefs on their underlying constructs. The objective of the study was to provide direct and indirect measures of the constructs using survey data to determine importance of and associations with intention to use antimicrobials prudently. The structural equation model indicated that perceived behavioral control explained intention. Thus, farmers who feel capable of prudent use expressed positive intentions. Attitude and perception of others also had influence to a lesser extent. MIMIC models showed that the most important attributes of instrumental attitude were increasing profitability, decreasing risk of residues, and increasing herd health. Contributing attributes of affective attitude were job satisfaction, decreasing resistance, and increasing milk production. For perceived norms, the attributes were opinions/approval of family and peers, veterinarians, and milk processors. Finally, for perceived behavioral control, attributes focused on saving money on labor and treatment, ability to fit into the daily routine, and effectiveness with veterinary guidance. In conclusion, the best approach for adoption of practices might be presentation of examples of successful strategies by other producers, particularly in peer groups. In addition, veterinarians should provide the tools and guidance needed to produce economic gain, reduction of risks associated with residues and resistance, and positive experiences when using the tactics.

A Bayesian analysis of longitudinal farm surveys in Central Malawi reveals yield determinants and site-specific management strategies.

Understanding the challenges to increasing maize productivity in sub-Saharan Africa, especially agronomic factors that reduce on-farm crop yield, has important implications for policies to reduce national and global food insecurity. Previous research on the maize yield gap has tended to emphasize the size of the gap (theoretical vs. achievable yields), rather than what determines maize yield in specific contexts. As a result, there is insufficient evidence on the key agronomic and environmental factors that influence maize yield in a smallholder farm environment. In this study, we implemented a Bayesian analysis with plot-level longitudinal household survey data covering 1,197 plots and 320 farms in Central Malawi. Households were interviewed and monitored three times per year, in 2015 and 2016, to document farmer management practices and seasonal rainfall, and direct measurements were taken of plant and soil characteristics to quantify impact on plot-level maize yield stability. The results revealed a high positive association between a leaf chlorophyll indicator and maize yield, with significance levels exceeding 95% Bayesian credibility at all sites and a regression coefficient posterior mean from 28% to 42% on a relative scale. A parasitic weed, Striga asiatica, was the variable most consistently negatively associated with maize yield, exceeding 95% credibility in most cases, of high intensity, with regression means ranging from 23% to 38% on a relative scale. The influence of rainfall, either directly or indirectly, varied by site and season. We conclude that the factors preventing Striga infestation and enhancing nitrogen fertility will lead to higher maize yield in Malawi. To improve plant nitrogen status, fertilizer was effective at higher productivity sites, whereas soil carbon and organic inputs were important at marginal sites. Uniquely, a Bayesian approach allowed differentiation of response by site for a relatively modest sample size study (given the complexity of farm environments and management practices). Considering the biophysical constraints, our findings highlight management strategies for crop yields, and point towards area-specific recommendations for nitrogen management and crop yield.

The current status of anthelmintic resistance in a temperate region of Australia; implications for small ruminant farm management.

Widespread anthelmintic resistance in small ruminants is a constraint on the profitability of the meat/wool industry. Limited published data is available on the prevalence and efficacy of anthelmintics, particularly in Australia where parasites affecting ruminant systems vary greatly between geographic regions. This paper reports on the anthelmintic resistance status in a temperate region of Victoria, Australia, a major sheep producing state largely affected by Trichostrongylus species and Teladorsagia circumcincta. The prevalence of anthelmintic resistance to any product was high (71%), with farms reporting varying levels of drug efficacies (21-100%). Resistance to older chemical groups (i.e. fenbendazole and levamisole) and single active macrocyclic lactone treatments was higher than newer chemical groups and combination treatments. This report provides clarity on anthelmintic resistance in the temperate region of Victoria and more importantly suggests that more comprehensive, regional specific anthelmintic resistance studies are required to understand the real level of chemical resistance threatening the effective control of worms.

A Tale of Three Gorges in the Yangtze River: Comparing the Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome According to ATPIII, WHO, and IDF Criteria and the Association with Vascular Health in Modernizing China.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is associated with atherosclerotic diseases. The prevalence of MS according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII), World Health Organization (WHO), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria are variable but increasing in western countries and modernizing China. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of MS according to these three criteria, in farmers or ex-farming residents in three-gorges territories undergoing rapid lifestyle changes. METHODS: We compared 95 residents (ex-farmers) in Wu Shan (WS) (28.4% men, aged 49.7 ± 9 years) resettled uphill for 3-5 years, and 87 age- and gender-matched farmers in Da Chang (DC) (27.6% men, aged 48.8 ± 10 years) before migration. MS and other traditional risk factors were assessed and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) measured. RESULTS: Ninety-nine percent of WS residents were retired or adopted nonfarming jobs. Compared with DC farmers, WS ex-farmers had higher waist circumference, low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides (P < 0.0001), but their blood pressures, HDL-cholesterol, and fasting glucose were similar. MS were identified in 43.2% (IDF), 36.8% (WHO), and 29.5% (ATPIII) respectively in WS ex-farmers, compared with 17.2%, 13.8%, and 11.5% respectively in DC farmers. Carotid IMT was significantly higher in WS ex-farmers (0.74 ± 0.16 mm) than in DC farmers (0.64 ± 0.11 mm) (P < 0.0001). On multivariate regression analysis, prevalence of MS was correlated with job nature (beta = 0.425, P < 0.0001). Carotid IMT was better correlated with IDF MS criteria (beta = 0.208, P = 0.021), independent of age and WS location (regression adjusted R2 = 0.444, F-value 12.0, P < 0.0001), but not with the ATPIII or WHO criteria. CONCLUSIONS: IDF MS criteria is more sensitive, better correlates with atherosclerosis surrogate, and accordingly is more readily applicable to modernizing China.

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak.

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

Microgreens-A review of food safety considerations along the farm to fork continuum.

The food safety implications of microgreens, an emerging salad crop, have been studied only minimally. The farm to fork continuum of microgreens and sprouts has some overlap in terms of production, physical characteristics, and consumption. This review describes the food safety risk of microgreens as compared to sprouts, potential control points for microgreen production, what is known to date about pathogen transfer in the microgreen production environment, and where microgreens differ from sprouts and their mature vegetable counterparts. The synthesis of published research to date may help to inform Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) and Good Handling Practices (GHPs) for the emerging microgreen industry.

An egg for everyone: Pathways to universal access to one of nature's most nutritious foods.

Eggs are a highly nutritious food but have been shown to be infrequently consumed in many low-income countries, especially by women and children. We collate country-level data on egg production, availability, consumption, prices, industry structure, and contextual trends and use these to estimate current patterns and likely future outcomes under four alternative scenarios. These scenarios are as follows: incremental change based on expected economic growth and urbanisation (the base scenario); enhanced productivity of independent small producers; aggregated production in egg hubs; and the accelerated spread of large-scale intensive production. All scenarios are modelled out to 2030 using a mix of regression and deterministic models. We find that children's consumption of eggs is highly correlated with national availability, and both are a function of egg prices. Eggs are unavailable, expensive, and infrequently consumed by children in much of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The base scenario results in modest increases in production in low-income regions. Focusing efforts on independent small producers can only boost rural consumption in a handful of countries where poultry ownership is unusually high and would be expensive and logistically challenging to scale. Aggregation of production, with minimum flock sizes of 5,000 layers per farm, is a more promising pathway to increasing availability in rural areas. To meet the needs of urban populations, large-scale intensive production is needed. Intensive production brings down prices significantly, allowing many more poor households to access and consume eggs. Recent experience in countries such as Thailand confirms that this is both feasible and impactful.

Impact of Farmland Change on Soybean Production Potential in Recent 40 Years: A Case Study in Western Jilin, China.

During the last 40 years, the quantity and spatial patterns of farmland in Western Jilin have changed dramatically, which has had a great impact on soybean production potential. This study used one of the most advanced crop production potential models, the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model, to calculate the soybean production potential in Western Jilin based on meteorological, topography, soil and land use data, and analyzed the impact of farmland change on soybean production potential during 1975⁻2013. The main conclusions were the following: first, the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin in 2013 was 8.92 million tonnes, and the average soybean production potential was 1612 kg/ha. The production potential of eastern area was higher than the other areas of Western Jilin. Second, farmland change led to a growth of 3.30 million tonnes in soybean production potential between 1975 and 2000, and a decrease of 1.03 million tonnes between 2000 and 2013. Third, taking account of two situations of farmland change, the conversion between dryland and other categories, and the change of irrigation percentage led to the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin increased by 2.31 and only 0.28 million tonnes respectively between 1975 and 2000, and increased by 0.12 and 0.29 million tonnes respectively between 2000 and 2013. In general, the increase of soybean potential production was mainly due to grassland and woodland reclamation. The results of this study would be a good guideline for protecting safe baseline of farmland, managing land resources, and ensuring continuity and stability of soybean supply and food security.

Effect of production system, supermarket and purchase date on the vitamin D content of eggs at retail.

The vitamin D content of eggs from three retail outlets was measured over five months to examine the effects of production system (organic vs. free range vs. indoor), supermarket and purchase date on the concentration of vitamin D3 and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3. Results demonstrated a higher vitamin D3 concentration in free range (57.2±3.1µg/kg) and organic (57.2±3.2µg/kg) compared with indoor (40.2±3.1µg/kg) (P<0.001), which was perhaps related to increased vitamin D synthesis by birds having more access to sunlight, while 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 concentration was higher (P<0.05) only in organic eggs. The interaction (P<0.05) between system and supermarket for both forms of vitamin D may relate to some incorrect labelling. Concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 was higher (P<0.05) in July and September than in August. The results indicate variations in vitamin D concentrations in eggs from different sources, thus highlighting the importance of accurate labelling.